Research paper on The Value of Agricultural Production in South Africa (1983–2019): The Effect of Government Expenditure in Agriculture and Other Selected Variables: A Vector Autoregressive Approach

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Title: The Value of Agricultural Production in South Africa (1983–2019): The Effect of Government Expenditure in Agriculture and Other Selected Variables: A Vector Autoregressive Approach

Abstract: The potential for South African agriculture to spur growth in other economic sectors has not received much attention recently, however, due to declining budgetary support for agriculture over time and the nature of other factors that affect the production value of agriculture. Therefore, the current study focused specifically on government expenditure in agriculture for the years 1983 to 2019. It also examined the effects of annual average rainfall, consumer price index, food import value, and population on the value of agricultural production. The results of the Johansen cointegration test show that there is a long-term relationship between the variables. According to the results of the Granger causality test, government support for agriculture does not necessarily increase the value of agricultural output. Although the two variables are related via other model variables, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model analysis showed that an increase in government spending on agriculture, average annual rainfall, and population would ultimately increase the value of agricultural production. The value of agricultural production, on the other hand, is negatively impacted by an increase in the consumer price index and the price of food imports. The results of these studies have policy ramifications for higher government spending.

Keywords: value of agricultural production; government expenditure in agriculture; Johansen cointegration; Granger causality; vector autoregressive

Paper Quality: SCOPUS / Web of Science Level Research Paper

Subject: Economics

Writer Experience: 20+ Years

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