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Title: The Impact of Reduced Tourist Arrivals and Expenditures on the Kenyan Economy as a Result of Terrorism and Political Unrest
Abstract: Numerous nations around the world rely heavily on tourism and consumer spending for their economic development. Attacks by terrorists, political unrest, and other external shocks cause disruptions and imbalances that result in tourism crises with grave economic repercussions for the nation. The paper quantitatively analyzes the effects of terrorism and political unrest on Kenya’s economy, as well as the wider economic and welfare effects of a continued decline in tourism receipts. In order to calibrate our dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model for Kanya, we use a Social Accounting Matrix from 2003. Our findings show that a decline in tourism expenditures results in a contraction of the both the short- and long-term economies. In urban households, a decline in tourism results in lower output, prices, and wages, whereas rural households experience an increase in welfare in the short- and medium-term and a decrease in the long-term. To protect tourism in Kenya and beyond, it is important to diversify the tourism product, improve branding, make crisis management plans, and place an emphasis on domestic travel, which is less susceptible to disruption.
Keywords: tourism; economy; external shocks; terrorism; political unrest
Paper Quality: SCOPUS / Web of Science Level Research Paper
Subject: Economics
Writer Experience: 20+ Years
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