Description
Title: Modeling Cassava Chip Price Volatility in Thailand: Bayesian GARCH-X Estimates’ Support
Abstract: Cassava is a significant crop that Thailand exports to other countries; its main export is cassava chips. Moreover, from 2000 to 2020, China was Thailand’s top export market. The price of cassava products fluctuated during that time, with cassava chips being one product with particularly high price volatility as a result of shifting export volumes. The purpose of this study is to examine the price volatility of cassava chips in Thailand from 2010 to 2020. The information was gathered on a monthly basis between 2010 and 2020, and it included the cost of cassava chips in Thailand (Y), the volume of cassava that China imported from Thailand (X1), the cost of cassava chips that China imported from Thailand (X2), the cost of cassava starch that China imported from Thailand (X3), the cost of maize and wheat substitute crops (X4), and the volume of cassava products that Thailand exported (X5) (X6). Using Bayesian GARCH-X, the volatility and variables influencing the volatility of the price of cassava chips were determined. The findings show that an increase in X1, X2, X3, X4, and X6 resulted in a faster rate of change in the volatility of cassava chip prices. On the other hand, the rate of change in the volatility of the cassava chip price decreases if the price of the wheat substitute crop (X5) rises. Therefore, the government should consider price volatility as well as the factors influencing it when developing an appropriate cassava policy. In addition, Thailand’s macroenvironmental factors and its major trading partners must be taken into account when the government is formulating agricultural policy, particularly when these environmental factors indicate changes in the price volatility of cassava.
Keywords: cassava price; volatility; Bayesian; GARCH-X; Thailand
Paper Quality: SCOPUS / Web of Science Level Research Paper
Subject: Economics
Writer Experience: 20+ Years
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