Description
Title: EU Country Public Debt and Economic Growth
Abstract: This paper analyzes the short- and long-term effects of public debt on economic growth in EU countries using data spanning 25 years (1995–2019). For public debt, we substituted general government gross debt (as a percentage of GDP), whereas for economic growth, we utilized the real GDP per capita growth rate. In addition, our models incorporate a set of control variables to highlight the effect of other economic growth determinants. The pooled mean group (PMG), the mean group (MG), and the dynamic fixed effects (DFE) models were utilized in conjunction with ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag models). The results of the study indicate that an increase in public debt is negatively and significantly associated with economic growth over both the short and long term. Specifically, the estimated coefficients of public debt were statistically significant and negative in both the short- and long-term analyses, although the magnitude of the negative impact on economic growth varied. In light of these findings, we believe that both the rigorous monitoring of the level of public debt and the control of public allocation to support economic growth are of the utmost importance.
Keywords: public debt; economic growth; long‐term effects; autoregressive distributed lag models; EU countries
Paper Quality: SCOPUS / Web of Science Level Research Paper
Subject: Economics
Writer Experience: 20+ Years
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