Description
Title: How to Identify Different Consumer Confidence Indicators (in Portugal)
Abstract: The relationship that should, theoretically, exist between the level of consumer confidence and the unemployment rate received some attention in the literature some time ago. Given the importance of the unemployment rate and the inherent subjectivity of that level of confidence, this relationship is intriguing from both a scientific and an economic policy perspective. The relationship between the two is examined once more in this article using learning models, specifically regression and classification trees. The unemployment rate suggests itself as a suitable classifier of the level of consumer confidence using, for example, the case of Portugal. The separation between the low and high values of the consumer confidence indicator is made from a suitable threshold value of the unemployment rate, according to the use of classification trees. Regression trees are used to demonstrate the inverse relationship between consumer confidence and unemployment rates. This demonstrates that the relationship between these two variables cannot be ignored in the face of economic crises, like the one we are currently experiencing, in which confidence levels tend to decline and the unemployment rate rises.
Keywords: classification trees; consumer confidence; learning models; regression trees; unemployment rate
Paper Quality: SCOPUS / Web of Science Level Research Paper
Subject: Economics
Writer Experience: 20+ Years
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