Description
Title: What Benefits Does Depreciation Bring to Vietnam?
Abstract: The study looks into how Vietnam’s stock market and export trade were impacted by the Vietnam dong’s (VND) depreciation against the US dollar (USD) from 2000 to 2020. The development of a Markov triple regime-switching model for time-series data with multistructural breaks. According to empirical findings, exchange rates had an effect on export turnover and stock price both in the long run and the short run. In the short term, the depreciation of the VND caused I an increase in export turnover after a year, (ii) a short-term decrease in export turnover under the high-growing regime, and (iii) a general decrease in stock returns. Additionally, the typical cycle for all states from order receipt to preparation to production to export is roughly 12 months. High export growth was linked to the high volatility of export turnover. The adage “high risk, high return” doesn’t appear to apply to the stock market in Vietnam. The findings of this study point to the viability of a slight VND appreciation against the USD as a means of avoiding the US Treasury’s designation of Vietnam as a currency manipulator.
Keywords: currency; export; stock returns; triple regime-switching model; Vietnam
Paper Quality: SCOPUS / Web of Science Level Research Paper
Subject: Economics
Writer Experience: 20+ Years
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