Description
Title: The Effect of Uncertainty on Trade: A Small Port’s Case
Abstract: The number of containers exported from Thailand via Penang Port, Malaysia, is affected by uncertainty resulting from changes in economic uncertainty, news-based uncertainty, and geopolitical risks, as shown in the current paper. Our sample spans the period from January 2009 to May 2020 and originates from Padang Besar, Surat Thani, and Bukit Kayu Hitam, the three main entry points in the Northern Peninsular Malaysia-Thailand Border. Road and rai are the two primary methods of container transportation used for export. This study uses a two-regime Markov regime-switching approach to investigate the nonlinear impact of uncertainty on trade. According to the empirical findings, the movement of containers in the high-uncertainty regime is generally significantly impacted by uncertainty. Small ports must therefore keep diversifying their clientele to mitigate the effects of changes in global trade brought on by uncertainty.
Keywords: Malaysia–Thailand cross-border trade; economic policy uncertainty; geopolitical news economic news
Paper Quality: SCOPUS / Web of Science Level Research Paper
Subject: Economics
Writer Experience: 20+ Years
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