Description
Title: Risk Analysis of COVID-19-Related Business Interruption Losses in the Philippines
Abstract: In this study, we perform an ex-post analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic workforce disruptions in the Philippines using an input-output (I-O) model. The effects of disease pandemics like COVID-19 are primarily felt by the workforce, in contrast to most disasters that weaken physical infrastructure systems. Lockdowns had a negative impact on workforce availability, just like actual illness did. In order to address parameter uncertainty, the method in this paper generates Dirichlet probability distributions for the Leontief requirements matrix (i.e., the normalized sectoral transactions matrix) using Philippine I-O data over a number of years. We then calculated the resilience index for each economic sector after estimating the workforce dependency ratio based on a literature review. For instance, industries like construction, agriculture, and manufacturing that rely heavily on the physical presence of their workforce suffer greater opportunity losses than industries where workers can work remotely (e.g., online retail, education, business process outsourcing). Your study came to similar conclusions as other studies that have been independently published, with estimates of the 50th percentile economic losses ranging from PhP 3.3 trillion (with telework) to PhP 4.8 trillion (without telework). The The study contributes to the overall field of disaster risk management and offers insights into the direct and indirect economic effects of workforce disruptions in emerging economies.
Keywords: Leontief model; Dirichlet distribution; uncertainty analysis; workforce; disaster; pandemic
Paper Quality: SCOPUS / Web of Science Level Research Paper
Subject: Economics
Writer Experience: 20+ Years
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