Description
Title: After COVID-19, money supply and inflation
Abstract: The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, increased to 5.2 percent in January 2022, which is the highest rate of growth in 40 years. According to our projections, unless restrictive monetary policies are implemented, annualized quarterly core PCE prices could rise as high as 8.57% and reach 5.45% in the second quarter of 2022. Thus, the inflation shock that has occurred since COVID-19 is not just temporary; it is also ongoing. The lack of adequate policy responses may be attributed to a failure to take into account a specific macroeconomic shock to unemployment during the pandemic, as economists anticipate the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy in March 2022. To examine structural shocks following COVID-19, we suggest a modified vector autoregression (VAR) model. Our suggested model is effective at predicting future price levels during pandemics.
Keywords: inflation; forecast; time series; vector autoregressiion; pandemic; COVID-19; unemployment rate
Paper Quality: SCOPUS / Web of Science Level Research Paper
Subject: Economics
Writer Experience: 20+ Years
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